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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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